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Introduction On Data
Reliability		 Analysis
Methodologies		 A Scientific WFM Observatory Explanatory
Hypotheses		 Conclusion

Available Video Footage
 Trollstigen1 Jul 2018
YouTube: adRsfMwpnQk★★☆☆☆
 Queen Valley (AZ)5 Apr 2018
YouTube: 4KeZ7Pzbd9U★★★★☆
 Suchá14 Oct 2017
YouTube: lnIUh2bPxu0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră3 Oct 2017
YouTube: P-iFx3VIiQ0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră14 Sep 2017
YouTube: mWvP3QG18v0★★★★☆
 Fort St. John (BC)3 Sep 2017
YouTube: d3ajks8OHCo★★★★★
 Weert25 May 2017
YouTube: h0s_P74oQD4★★★★☆
 Port Tabacco (MD)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: 2wII24qSpDw★★★★☆
 Volgograd (VGG)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: _p_inSwZcPQ★★★☆☆
 Charles Town (WV)Feb 2017
YouTube: JJpSYozvasc★★★★☆
 RugeleySummer 2016
YouTube: mgrI0MHZQQc★★★☆☆
 New York City (NY)Jul 2016
YouTube: QGKkhZE2Fk0★★☆☆☆
 Ayden (NC)16 Oct 2016
YouTube: 6BUA6zdbgEE★★★★☆
 Nueva Talcuna24 Mar 2016
YouTube: O9R1wMq0VOI★★☆☆☆
 Maryland Point (MD)12 Dec 2015
YouTube: 9P2A8m7RgnA★★★★★
 Sion13 Nov 2015
YouTube: dNrtU1z_5EQ★★★☆☆
 Westbury26 Sep 2015
YouTube: VjW_QyXtyHA★★★★★

 Queen Valley (AZ), 5 Apr 2018


 Abstract  The object moves very fast through a particularly hot and dry mountain area. A frame-by-frame analyses reveals that the object, which passes the drone very closely, does not approach it in a straight trajectory. The object seems to make some sudden changes of directions by some degrees. But unlike other cases of non-linear trajectories (esp. lnIUh2bPxu0) it cannot clearly be shown that the maneuvers are only intended to avoid obstacles in the path. But due to the mountainous terrain and the possibility of an ascending movement of the object this option can also not be ruled out. This is the only case of good data showing a possible WFM doing rapid maneuvers.


Video Info
Source:YouTube.com/watch?v=4KeZ7Pzbd9U
User:Desert 107 UAV 
Published:09 Apr 2018
Resolution:1080p
Frame rate:25fps
Drone model: DJI Phantom 4 Advanced
Files: archived original description and comments on YouTube
Content Info
Viewpoint*: 33.300274, -111.255148goo.gl/maps/vAA9Mm5AGtM2
Time†: 05 Apr 2018 15:58 (Mountain Time, UTC-07:00)
Weather: 31°C, 1009.7hPa, 12% humid., 9.3 km/h wind NWmore 
Object Analysis Results
Appears in frames:156 to 191 (00:06:240 to 00:07:640 m:s:ms)
First/last appearance*:(33.303306, -111.266833)  /  (33.299611, -111.256444)
Object's direction:NW to SE
Passed distance:1.04km (28.89m per frame)
Traveling speed:2600km/hReview methodology for this estimate


Data Reliability and Quality

The source's YouTube channel provides content of video drone footage from the US Arizona area since January 2018. He uploaded three to four videos per month until now (May 2018). He does not provide any further UFO related content in addition to this video. The originators email address can be found on his YouTube profile page.

The originator of the video added an exact timestamp of capturing the footage, the drone's altitude and other telemetric information from the drone to the data. Depending on the specific frame, the object is either too far away or the speed is too high to provide more information than it being a rather small and white object. However, this is one of the very informative cases in which we see the object approaching from the far distance back to the point where it seems to be too far away to be visible in the images.

The smear effect that can be observed in later frames is consistent with the observed object's trajectory and camera angle in every observable frame. Figure 1 shows the closeup views of the last frames. Since the viewing angle becomes more and more steep when the object approaches to a point below the drone, the smear effect only occurs to a clearly noticeable degree in the very last frames. This is common for cases from this angle of view and approach.




Fig 1. Closeup views from the last images.

Roughly Linear Trajectory with some Apparent Additional Rapid Meneuvers

Despite the common situation of the object approaching from a far distance, a closer frame-by-frame analysis reveals some apparent non-linear flying behavior. Roughly stated, in the first half of the visible flight the object makes some significant and rapid maneuvers in horizontal direction and/or change of altitude. These maneuvers occur uniquely in only this specific case. Figure 2 shows the frame-by-frame analysis with marks of the object's position when it could be unambiguously determined. The positions that are determinable, but not marked, are all consistent with the analysed path of travel. They are excluded for efficiency and better visibility.


Fig 2. Analysis of the object's path in the video. Between frame 156 and 173, every unambiguously determinable position is marked. From 173 to 183, every second frame is marked. For later frames every position is marked. Frame 175 is used as background. The footage does not need stabilization, because the drone slowly approaches the object straight ahead; figure 3 shows the drones movement.


Fig 3. Drone's movement between frames 156 and 191 in real time. (only 256 colors for technical reasons)

Figure 4 provides a zoomed view of the analysis from figure 2 but is intended to reveal the object's traveling path more clearly by replacing the bullet marks with a spline that goes through every position of the object. Figure 5 shows a zoomed version of the object's non-linear flight maneuvers in earlier frames.

The maneuver appears when the object is still rather far away in the distance. Even high-end cameras for consumers can be affected by small irregularities of the lens, which lead to noticeable distortions of zoomed areas in an photograph. However, if the object travels in fact along a straight line, the observed lens distortion (figure 4) has to be a particularly extreme one. Furthermore, several cases of other possible WFM footage from a DJI Phantom 4 Advanced (see section on camera sensors and lenses) show the WFMs' trajectories on a very straight path approaching from a distance.

An additional argument for the apparent maneuver not being fully caused by lens distortions is based on additional information about the terrain. Figure 6 shows the satellite imagery of the location with a mark for my rough best estimate of the path. The tectonic analysis of the location, figure 7, reveals more clearly that the first half of the object's visible path is located over some hilly area. The object's maneuvers seem to occur in accordance with the non-even terrain, which indicates that the object's flight path is influenced by the altering ground level to which it causally reacts to. The data is not good enough to show with a high degree of certainty that the maneuvers exactly align with the changing elevations of the ground below; a higher frame rate and a significantly increased resolution would have been advantageous for such an analysis.

Overall, given the magnitude of the maneuver and the terrain information it seems more likely to me that the travel path is in fact strongly non-linear. But unfortunate lens distortion cannot be fully excluded unless the used lens has been specifically analysed for its distortion behavior.


Fig 4. Object's flying path determined by all unambiguously determinable positions.


Fig 5. Video of frame 156 to 186 (enlarged, original speed, reduced colors).


Fig 6. Location's satellite image with marked estimated object's path.


Fig 7. Terrain data for location with marked estimated object's path via Google.

Estimation of Speed

As elaborated on in chapter Analysis Methodologies, a crucial assumption for the estimate of the traveling speed is that the object travels on a roughly constant altitude over the ground. With this assumption a rough estimation of the traveled distance is possible (figure 6). The resulting speed of around Mach 2 is consistent with the smear effect in the later frames (figure 1) and the increasing size of the object (figure 5).

Weather Conditions

A sufficiently nearby weather Station is available (see figure A.1 below) and describes a hot and dry afternoon in the Arizona desert. This serves as evidence, in addition to many other aspects of the phenomenon of white fast movers, that these phenomena are not closely related to hail stones or other mundane weather phenomena. Wind speeds are insignificant but the wind direction cannot be reliably determined due to the high variability of wind directions on that day in this mountainous area. After my specific request the originator quoted the telemetric data from the drone: April 5th, 2018 at 3:58pm. 88 degrees, wind NE @ 6 and wind at altitude NE 13 gusting 20 (discussion page of 4KeZ7Pzbd9U, in March 2018)

Appendix

Fig A.1. Distance between camera and nearest publicly available weather station at Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport.

* Geographic coordinates are given as a vector of latitudes and longitudes in format WGS 84 as used by Google maps.

† The detailed point in time of the capture was stated by the originator of the footage.

 
 
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