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Introduction On Data
Reliability		 Analysis
Methodologies		 A Scientific WFM Observatory Explanatory
Hypotheses		 Conclusion

Available Video Footage
 Trollstigen1 Jul 2018
YouTube: adRsfMwpnQk★★☆☆☆
 Queen Valley (AZ)5 Apr 2018
YouTube: 4KeZ7Pzbd9U★★★★☆
 Suchá14 Oct 2017
YouTube: lnIUh2bPxu0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră3 Oct 2017
YouTube: P-iFx3VIiQ0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră14 Sep 2017
YouTube: mWvP3QG18v0★★★★☆
 Fort St. John (BC)3 Sep 2017
YouTube: d3ajks8OHCo★★★★★
 Weert25 May 2017
YouTube: h0s_P74oQD4★★★★☆
 Port Tabacco (MD)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: 2wII24qSpDw★★★★☆
 Volgograd (VGG)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: _p_inSwZcPQ★★★☆☆
 Charles Town (WV)Feb 2017
YouTube: JJpSYozvasc★★★★☆
 RugeleySummer 2016
YouTube: mgrI0MHZQQc★★★☆☆
 New York City (NY)Jul 2016
YouTube: QGKkhZE2Fk0★★☆☆☆
 Ayden (NC)16 Oct 2016
YouTube: 6BUA6zdbgEE★★★★☆
 Nueva Talcuna24 Mar 2016
YouTube: O9R1wMq0VOI★★☆☆☆
 Maryland Point (MD)12 Dec 2015
YouTube: 9P2A8m7RgnA★★★★★
 Sion13 Nov 2015
YouTube: dNrtU1z_5EQ★★★☆☆
 Westbury26 Sep 2015
YouTube: VjW_QyXtyHA★★★★★

 Volgograd (VGG), 18 Mar 2017


 Abstract  This is one of the occasions where the object can be analysed over many frames with a sufficient distance to the camera to make inferences about the trajectory. The object is too fast to be a known animal (esp. bird) and it changes altitude in a straight line. It cannot be a non-self-propelled projectile, since it does not lose speed and remains on a linear trajectory, whereas falling objects with this speed move to the ground parabolically. A jet propelled model airplane is able to move like the object recorded. However, the strictly linear trajectory towards the ground for a duration of approximately 2.4 seconds and the bright white color indicate that this footage would have been specifically fabricated to look like many other cases presented on this website and is unlikely an accidental catch of a fellow model pilot. However, a linear change of altitude is not very typical for a WFM.


Video Info
Source:YouTube.com/watch?v=_p_inSwZcPQ
User:Сергей Наумов 
Published:04 Apr 2017
Resolution:1080p
Frame rate:48fps
Drone model: DJI Phantom 4
Files: archived original description and comments on YouTube
Content Info
Viewpoint*: 48.719885, 44.58993goo.gl/maps/kbBXH3J8daC2
Time†: 18 Mar 2017 more precise time not available (Moscow Time, UTC+03:00)
Weather: 3-11°C, 1012-4hPa, 36-93% humid., 7.2-18 km/h wind S-Emore 
Object Analysis Results
Appears in frames:208 to 325 (00:04:333 to 00:06:771 m:s:ms)
First/last appearance*:(48.72275, 44.586889)  /  (48.722028, 44.582167)
Object's direction:NE to SW
Passed distance:0.3695km (3.13m per frame)
Traveling speed:541.1km/hReview methodology for this estimate


Data Quality and Reliability

This case has some very usual circumstances regarding its origin. The originator has a small YouTube channel where he uploads mostly drone videos from a specific region, in this case, Volgograd in Russia. He uploads only a fistful of videos per year since June 2016 and some videos seem to document some other relevant incidents in the persons daily life. He titles and discusses his videos using only Russian and The other videos on the channel do not stand in any relevant relation to UFOs. The channel only has eight subscribers (June 2018). As in many other cases from the footage list, this channel looks like a small hobby project of someone who likes filming, in particular with drones, and some video editing. Some videos reveal the originator's (and/or his friends or family members or co-workers) appearances and some videos are filmed with hand-held cameras.

The originator provides some background information about the filming (date) and the location can easily be identified by the landmarks (e.g. the Volgograd football stadium and the bridge). These circumstances point to a good degree of reliability because none of them point to any indication of a hoaxed moving picture.

The footage was captured with a large distance to the object. The possible WFM is comparatively slow and its shape can only be determined roughly. That is why it cannot be excluded that this is a very fast model airplane. However, the object's shape and linear trajectory does not make this explanation likely.

Object's Shape

As in other cases of possible WFM, the object seems to be of some symmetrical form (e.g. P-iFx3VIiQ0, 0tK0dWmhGTw, ZQWdYGkEp-I). Figure 1 shows that the object could best be described as looking peanut shaped from the angle of the view in the footage. The little information we get about the object's shape corroborates the hypothesis that this is not a model airplane or drone, because those should have a more aerodynamic form for the captured movement behavior, in particular the high speed. Due to the slow traveling speed, the far distance and the angle, no smear effect caused by a long shutter time occurs.


Fig 1. Enlarged and slowed view in the possible object in some of the frames in which it is visible.

Trajectory: Strictly Linear and Descending

The most interesting feature of this footage is the object's strictly linear travel path and its seeming descend (see figure 2). This is a very peculiar behavior and was only rarely captured (another and more clear case of WFM with similar behavior is Fort St. John (BC), 3 Sep 2017). Note that an accelerated and falling object without active propulsion does not fall in a linear trajectory but parabolically. That is why a non-propelled object can be excluded as an explanation. However, a white model airplane with a very strong jet propulsion could fly with the measured speed along the measured trajectory.

(click image for fullscreen view)

Fig 2. Object's travel path in image.

Estimation of Speed

From the footage alone we cannot derive whether the object's speed remains strictly constant. But the footage is perfectly consistent with a propelled object that travels with constant speed (541.1 km/h) away from the camera and nothing can be found in the footage to raise serious doubt as to this interpretation.

Given these assumptions a distance can be estimated (figure 3). The originator estimated an approximate speed is 300 km / h (original video description) without elaborating on this estimate.

(click image for fullscreen view)

Fig 3. Estimation of object's traveled distance.

Weather

The weather conditions do not exclude the possibility of hail. However, the object's direction of travel and speed exclude a mundane natural explanation. Figure A.1 shows the location of the measurement station.

Appendix

Fig A.1. Distance between camera and nearest publicly available weather station at Volgograd International Airport.

* Geographic coordinates are given as a vector of latitudes and longitudes in format WGS 84 as used by Google maps.

† The day of the capture was stated by the originator but a more precise estimate by sun position or shadows is not feasible (due to clouds and camera angles).

 
 
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