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Introduction On Data
Reliability		 Analysis
Methodologies		 A Scientific WFM Observatory Explanatory
Hypotheses		 Conclusion

Available Video Footage
 Trollstigen1 Jul 2018
YouTube: adRsfMwpnQk★★☆☆☆
 Queen Valley (AZ)5 Apr 2018
YouTube: 4KeZ7Pzbd9U★★★★☆
 Suchá14 Oct 2017
YouTube: lnIUh2bPxu0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră3 Oct 2017
YouTube: P-iFx3VIiQ0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră14 Sep 2017
YouTube: mWvP3QG18v0★★★★☆
 Fort St. John (BC)3 Sep 2017
YouTube: d3ajks8OHCo★★★★★
 Weert25 May 2017
YouTube: h0s_P74oQD4★★★★☆
 Port Tabacco (MD)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: 2wII24qSpDw★★★★☆
 Volgograd (VGG)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: _p_inSwZcPQ★★★☆☆
 Charles Town (WV)Feb 2017
YouTube: JJpSYozvasc★★★★☆
 RugeleySummer 2016
YouTube: mgrI0MHZQQc★★★☆☆
 New York City (NY)Jul 2016
YouTube: QGKkhZE2Fk0★★☆☆☆
 Ayden (NC)16 Oct 2016
YouTube: 6BUA6zdbgEE★★★★☆
 Nueva Talcuna24 Mar 2016
YouTube: O9R1wMq0VOI★★☆☆☆
 Maryland Point (MD)12 Dec 2015
YouTube: 9P2A8m7RgnA★★★★★
 Sion13 Nov 2015
YouTube: dNrtU1z_5EQ★★★☆☆
 Westbury26 Sep 2015
YouTube: VjW_QyXtyHA★★★★★

 Rugeley, Summer 2016


 Abstract  This footage exemplifies many of the most common features of the WFM phenomenon captured by a drone camera. The object is approaching from a distance in a perfectly straight or almost perfectly straight line, it remains very likely on roughly the same altitude over the ground, it moves about the speed of sound over a suburban area close to the geographic center of England. Later frames of the video reveal the smear effect due to the camera's long shutter time. The weather conditions are favorable and the drone's altitude is sufficiently high to provide very good data for the estimate of the object's speed. However, the originator did originally not provide a specific time of the filmed incident, and also not after a specific request for this information.


Video Info
Source:YouTube.com/watch?v=mgrI0MHZQQc
User:LoneDrone911 
Published:09 Aug 2016
Resolution:2160p
Frame rate:24fps
Drone model: DJI Phantom 4 Pro
Files: archived original description and comments on YouTube
Content Info
Viewpoint*: 52.757397, -1.967349goo.gl/maps/fddu4prbWzF2
The exact date and time of the recording were not given
Object Analysis Results
Appears in frames:108 to 144 (00:04:500 to 00:06:0 m:s:ms)
First/last appearance*:(52.762444, -1.971139)  /  (52.757972, -1.967611)
Object's direction:NW to SE
Passed distance:0.552km (14.92m per frame)
Traveling speed:1289km/hReview methodology for this estimate


Data Reliability and Quality

The originator's YouTube channel has 13 subscribers and uploaded 19 videos since October 2016 as of now (July 2018). All of these videos show drone footage from—whenever the location is mentioned— the western-central England area with some additional editing (e.g. superimposed texts to comment the footage). None of his other contributions than this possible WFM footage is particularly UFO related. His videos show either the landscape or fireworks (5 videos). He does not provide much descriptions for his videos, but responded to my comments. However, he did not reveal the exact time of the here analysed capture after my repeated requests. On his profile he does not reveal a list of liked videos or subscriptions. Therefore, we cannot infer much psychometric information from his YouTube account alone.

Despite not being very elaborative on his channel, he implicitly seems to reveal his identity. Another video on his channel is introduced as a Stefano Martini production (948Yewp1_Kw) and the prefix of a revealed email address is stemartin911 (I do not quote the full address for privacy reasons, nrGtFlMTDBw).

Overall, as in many other cases of good possible WFM footage, the originator's channel seems to be the hobby project of someone, who likes to film with his drone. The editing of the videos (i.e. comments of them by superimposed texts) differ a bit from video to video. He might try out different design ideas and features of video editing software. Given the small amount of videos, the scarce descriptions and the rather technical titles, such as bhl12, Drone22, Fireworks2016, Hednesford Festival or fast object., he does not seem to aim for an increasing audience or any commercial implications. This background gives this case a good reliability, but it could be better, if the originator responds more openly to my requests for further information.

The footage's resolution is very good (2160p), the lighting conditions are favorable, but the frame rate (24p) could be better. The smear effect and the size of the object in the images are consistent with a moving object. No feature of the footage in the analysis points to any fabrication of or tampering with this footage.

Smear Effect

As figure 1 shows, the smear effect for this case is very noticeable and consistent with the estimated speed.


Fig 1. Closeup views from selected frames.

(Almost) Strictly Straight Trajectory

Since the object is visible from frame 108 to 144, the trajectory can be analyzed. However, during the capture of the footage, the drone moves very slowly towards the possible WFM. I stabilized the footage on a point roughly in the bottom-center of the image. As figure 2 shows, the trajectory seems to be very slightly curved. Due to changes of perspective caused by the drones movement, I cannot reliably estimate whether/how strong there is any deviation from a strictly straight trajectory. It is also possible that the object flies along a strictly straight trajectory and the curved appearance of the trajectory in figure 2 is completely caused by the change of perspective due to the drone's movement.

Fig 2. Analysis of object's travel path.

Speed Estimation

This footage provides very good data for an estimation of travel speed. Given the common assumption of a roughly constant altitude (see chapter Analysis Methodologies), the object travels with 1289 km/h, which is around the speed of sound in air with ground air pressure, which is well in the scope of common WFM and cannot be achieved with common technical equipment for an object of this size. Figure 3 shows the estimated traveled distance.

Fig 3. Estimation of object's traveled distance.

Weather Conditions

Given the upload date in August, the bright sun, the long shadows, the rich green trees and the brownish meadows, this footage might have been shot in a bright late Summer evening. However, no exact time is specified and therefore, no detailed weather information is available.

* Geographic coordinates are given as a vector of latitudes and longitudes in format WGS 84 as used by Google maps.



 
 
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