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Introduction On Data
Reliability		 Analysis
Methodologies		 A Scientific WFM Observatory Explanatory
Hypotheses		 Conclusion

Available Video Footage
 Trollstigen1 Jul 2018
YouTube: adRsfMwpnQk★★☆☆☆
 Queen Valley (AZ)5 Apr 2018
YouTube: 4KeZ7Pzbd9U★★★★☆
 Suchá14 Oct 2017
YouTube: lnIUh2bPxu0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră3 Oct 2017
YouTube: P-iFx3VIiQ0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră14 Sep 2017
YouTube: mWvP3QG18v0★★★★☆
 Fort St. John (BC)3 Sep 2017
YouTube: d3ajks8OHCo★★★★★
 Weert25 May 2017
YouTube: h0s_P74oQD4★★★★☆
 Port Tabacco (MD)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: 2wII24qSpDw★★★★☆
 Volgograd (VGG)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: _p_inSwZcPQ★★★☆☆
 Charles Town (WV)Feb 2017
YouTube: JJpSYozvasc★★★★☆
 RugeleySummer 2016
YouTube: mgrI0MHZQQc★★★☆☆
 New York City (NY)Jul 2016
YouTube: QGKkhZE2Fk0★★☆☆☆
 Ayden (NC)16 Oct 2016
YouTube: 6BUA6zdbgEE★★★★☆
 Nueva Talcuna24 Mar 2016
YouTube: O9R1wMq0VOI★★☆☆☆
 Maryland Point (MD)12 Dec 2015
YouTube: 9P2A8m7RgnA★★★★★
 Sion13 Nov 2015
YouTube: dNrtU1z_5EQ★★★☆☆
 Westbury26 Sep 2015
YouTube: VjW_QyXtyHA★★★★★

 Charles Town (WV), Feb 2017


 Abstract  The drone stays roughly stationary on a very high altitude and the object approaches the ground location of the drone from the far distance on a low level of altitude. Therefore, the estimate of the object's speed is particularly reliable and around three times the speed of sound. Other indicators, like the smear effect in later frames due to the camera's insufficiently short shutter time and the changes of the object's size in the video with the alleged distance of it support this estimate of the object's speed. The object changes its direction from South to South-East along a curved path and comes closer to the drone due to this maneuver. Unfortunately, no precise time information of the footage and no precise weather data are available. The originator reports a malfunctioning drone after the possible WFM's flyby.


Video Info
Source:YouTube.com/watch?v=JJpSYozvasc
User:Chris Jones 
Published:20 Feb 2017
Resolution:2160p
Frame rate:24fps
Drone model: DJI Mavic Pro
Files: archived original description and comments on YouTube
Content Info
Viewpoint*: 39.245044, -77.790162goo.gl/maps/ZTBfzYi7DDv
The exact date and time of the recording were not given
Object Analysis Results
Appears in frames:3812 to 3872 (02:38:833 to 02:41:333 m:s:ms)
First/last appearance*:(39.25925, -77.818222)  /  (39.245889, -77.794222)
Object's direction:W to E
Passed distance:2.54km (41.64m per frame)
Traveling speed:3597.6km/hReview methodology for this estimate


Data Reliability and Quality

The originator's YouTube channel has eight uploaded videos and 68 subscribers today (July 2018). He registered his YouTube account in August 2010 and his first upload was in September 2011, implying that the originator does not upload often. Three of the videos show drone footage, the other five are very short clips that seem to be rather a result of testing the technical video equipment, than being created to entertain a larger audience. None of his other videos are in any way related to UFOs. He subscribed to 67 other channels with a wide variety of topics. Some of these channels are devoted to political topics in the United States. Noticeably, the originator subscribed the channel thirdphaseofmoon, which often features UFO related content, including ad hoc analyses with insufficient diligence and hoaxes.

Overall the originator seems to be aware about the UFO topic and even interested in it, but his YouTube channel reveals a profile that points much more to other interests and not a specific aim to promote his channel on which he is a very inactive uploader. That is why I estimate the probability of a hoax rather small. However, interestingly, the originator did not respond to my requests for further information. Furthermore, he reports a malfunctioning of the drone:

At 2:40 in the video, you'll see an unidentified flying object appear in the upper right part of the screen and pass underneath the drone at a very high rate of speed. The DJI Mavic Pro completely shut down and lost all connection immediately after this, but thankfully it returned home as it is designed to do.

I didn't notice it at first while flying, and only saw it after I watched the video afterwards. What was this, and was this the reason why the drone lost all communication?
(youtu.be/JJpSYozvasc, retrieved on 24 July 2018)

I know of no other case of malfunction drones close to WFM. Therefore, it is reasonable to notice this peculiarity of this case, but the number of similar cases is insufficient to draw further conclusions about WFM behavior or influence on drones in this regard.

The video resolution is very favorable (2160p) but the frame rate is low, which does not decrease the footage's quality significantly, because the large distance to the object make a higher frame rate unnecessary. The lighting conditions are good enough, because the object mostly appears in front of a very dark forest.

Smear Effect and Object's Shape

Due to the seemingly large distance of several hundred meters between the object and the camera lens, the object appears only as a white dot or blob. However, as figure 1 shows, the smear effect is very noticeable and fits to the change in angles between the objects movement direction and the camera. This effect of an increased smear is a common feature of footage of approaching WFMs.

Fig 1. Slowed down and zoomed details of the object in the last frames.

Curved Trajectory

For a reliable analysis of the object's travel path the video needs to be stabilized, because the gimbal rotates in a way that the camera records a moving view from right to left over the landscape at the time the possible WFM is in the picture. Figure 3 shows the change of the viewing angle and the result of my stabilization routine. Since, due to the strong change of the viewing angle, the stabilization on one chosen point in the image is not sufficient for a very detailed analysis, I translated the object's position in some of the earlier frames to its most appropriate position shown in specific one still (frame 3872, the last frame that shows the object before it leaves the view). Therefore, as figure 2 shows, the object's travel path is significantly curved and not even roughly linear.

Fig 2. Analysis of the object's path in the video. Due to drone and gimbal movement, the footage needs to be stabilized as shown and discussed by figure 3. See written comments in the image for further description.


Fig 3. Unstabilized (left) and stabilized (right) footage of every fifth frame between 3812 and 3872 but with original speed of gimbal movement. The stabilization object is the white chapel in the bottom right part of the image.

Two properties of this case are particularly interesting. First, the curve's shape as well as the distances between the marked object's positions in the early frames suggest that the object did fly along a horizontal curve assuming a constant travel speed. More precisely, it changed its direction of flight from South to South-East. Additionally, the object might have changed its altitude to a lesser significant amount. Second, the object's curved travel path make it come close to the drone than it would be if it kept the more southern flight direction. This is a common phenomenon for WFMs (e.g. 2wII24qSpDw, VjW_QyXtyHA) and corroborates the hypothesis that WFM are intentionally steered and often aim to come close to drones.

Speed Estimation

Figure 4 shows an estimate of the traveled distance under the assumption of a constant altitude. The assumption is well justified by the analysis above. Since the actual trajectory is not linear but curved, the estimated speed is a little bit below the actual average speed of the object.

Fig 4. Estimation of object's distance traveled (linear approximation).

Weather

Unfortunately, the originator did not provide a precise point in time of the capture and did not reply to requests for this information. Furthermore, the footage has have to been captured in the evening, because we can see the sunset in the West. Since the sky is partly clouded, the air might be rather humid, and the upload date indicates that the season is very likely winter. The trees and also the drone show no affects of wind and, therefore, strong winds can be excluded. Nothing more precise can be said about the weather. However, the object's travel speed excludes a mundane natural phenomenon (e.g. hail stone) as a possible explanation.

* Geographic coordinates are given as a vector of latitudes and longitudes in format WGS 84 as used by Google maps.



 
 
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