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Introduction On Data
Reliability		 Analysis
Methodologies		 A Scientific WFM Observatory Explanatory
Hypotheses		 Conclusion

Available Video Footage
 Trollstigen1 Jul 2018
YouTube: adRsfMwpnQk★★☆☆☆
 Queen Valley (AZ)5 Apr 2018
YouTube: 4KeZ7Pzbd9U★★★★☆
 Suchá14 Oct 2017
YouTube: lnIUh2bPxu0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră3 Oct 2017
YouTube: P-iFx3VIiQ0★★★★★
 Crucea de Piatră14 Sep 2017
YouTube: mWvP3QG18v0★★★★☆
 Fort St. John (BC)3 Sep 2017
YouTube: d3ajks8OHCo★★★★★
 Weert25 May 2017
YouTube: h0s_P74oQD4★★★★☆
 Port Tabacco (MD)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: 2wII24qSpDw★★★★☆
 Volgograd (VGG)18 Mar 2017
YouTube: _p_inSwZcPQ★★★☆☆
 Charles Town (WV)Feb 2017
YouTube: JJpSYozvasc★★★★☆
 RugeleySummer 2016
YouTube: mgrI0MHZQQc★★★☆☆
 New York City (NY)Jul 2016
YouTube: QGKkhZE2Fk0★★☆☆☆
 Ayden (NC)16 Oct 2016
YouTube: 6BUA6zdbgEE★★★★☆
 Nueva Talcuna24 Mar 2016
YouTube: O9R1wMq0VOI★★☆☆☆
 Maryland Point (MD)12 Dec 2015
YouTube: 9P2A8m7RgnA★★★★★
 Sion13 Nov 2015
YouTube: dNrtU1z_5EQ★★★☆☆
 Westbury26 Sep 2015
YouTube: VjW_QyXtyHA★★★★★

 Maryland Point (MD), 12 Dec 2015


 Abstract  This footage provides very valuable data for several reasons. First, the object appears over a rather pristine forest close to urban areas. The originator uses a Finwing Sabre, which is able to cover larger distances than helicopter drones. Second, the object is filmed from a great altitude above it crossing the screen. Third, as seen very commonly in other cases, the object is of brightly white color and seems to travel very directly over a forest's tree line with a constant altitude over ground level. Forth, the object approaches the drone from a great distance and the common smear effects of an insufficiently short shutter time can be seen in later frames. These circumstances help to provide a reliable estimate of the object's travel speed that exceeds most other cases greatly. One may speculate that WFMs travel much faster over uninhabited areas. However, this case is unique in this regard and the estimation is not unambiguous.


Video Info
Source:YouTube.com/watch?v=9P2A8m7RgnA
User:smoothvirus 
Published:12 Dec 2015
Resolution:1080p
Frame rate:30fps
Drone model: Finwing Sabre with GoPro Hero 3 Black
Files: archived original description and comments on YouTube
Content Info
Viewpoint*: 38.392644, -77.253358goo.gl/maps/5Cu25G6eWYB2
Time†: 12 Dec 2015 14:30 (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
Weather: 17-20°C, 1020hPa, 61-70% humid., 0-5.6 km/h wind SSWmore 
Object Analysis Results
Appears in frames:8055 to 8064 (04:28:500 to 04:28:800 m:s:ms)
First/last appearance*:(38.377861, -77.235861)  /  (38.393472, -77.251306)
Object's direction:SE to NW
Passed distance:2.21km (221m per frame) (unreliable)
Traveling speed:23868km/h (unreliable)Review methodology for this estimate


Data Reliability and Quality

The originator uploaded his first video to this YouTube channel in 2006, he has 199 videos uploaded so far and 459 subscribers (July 2018). His videos include personal comments via a video blog, weather or astronomical incidents, RC models, house cats, drone footage like the one that is discussed here and some other topics that one may be faced with in a daily life. His playlists fit well into these areas of interests. Noticeably, the originator created, amongst some others, a playlist of Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) that comprises sprites, which are a specific form of naturally occurring lightning. Another playlist is devoted to Great American Eclipse 2017.

As in many other cases of footage of possible WFMs, this YouTube channel shows many characteristics of a genuine hobby channel of someone, who likes to fly RC models and drones, and who has a genuine interest in technology and the sciences. His channel is in no way focused on UFO related subjects. Furthermore, the video shows the whole flight with the drone and is 19 minutes and 12 seconds long. The originator might not even have noticed the possible WFM before another YouTube user Sukowaty Photography pointed it out more than one year after the upload of the video:

I see the super fast white streak on the left side @4:28. I have a similar situation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiVOlb8CmOU
(youtu.be/9P2A8m7RgnA, discussion page, retrieved in March 2018)

Neither the video's title Finwing Sabre - Flight to the abandoned radio telescope, nor the description hints to the originator noticing the possible WFM.

The video is of sufficient quality to detect the possible WFM, whenever it is in frame, but we cannot derive any more detail about its shape.

As figure 1 shows, the video compression algorithm seems to distort the object position in frames 8055-8056.—Video compression algorithms only show sufficiently significant changes of the images and non-changing parts of an image remain with the image from the earlier frame instead of being replaced with a new, identical image to save storage space. The disappearance of the small white dot in frame 8056 might not be recognized as sufficiently significant by the algorithm.

Fig 1. Artefact of video compression in frames 8055-8056.

Object's Shape and Smear Effect

We can only see a ball-shaped outline of the object, but the resolution is not sufficient to analyse the object's shape in more detail. As figure 2 shows, a smear effect consistent with a fast moving object traveling with constant altitude over the ground is clearly noticeable. Note that the object does not seem to come very close to the camera, which is located significantly over the tree line (the background of figure 3 is a full screen shot of the scene).

Fig 2. Enlarged and slowed animation of last frames.

Roughly Linear Trajectory

As figure 3 shows and similar to some other cases of possible WFM (e.g. 6BUA6zdbgEE, mgrI0MHZQQc, _p_inSwZcPQ, O9R1wMq0VOI), the object travels roughly along a straight line, but it follows a curve with a very large radius. The analysis does not sufficiently indicate wether this slight curve also implies a change of the object's altitude.

Fig 3. Path analysis (see descriptions in image for details).

Estimation of Speed

The crucial assumption for an estimation of the object's travel speed is that it does not change its altitude significantly (see Analysis Method) and that it moves very close over the top of the forest's trees. Other cases of possible WFMs show a similar behavior and the change of the object's size in the images, as well as the smear effect in later frames is consistent with this assumption. Therefore, the estimated speed has an extremely high upper bound (23,868 km/h). If the possible WFM travels far above the the tree line, then it travels significantly slower than this value. Such a high travel altitude is, given all other analysed cases, untypical for WFMs, but can neither be excluded by the video data alone, nor by any other argument based on all the information about WFMs gathered so far.

Fig 3. Path analysis (see descriptions in image for details).

Weather Conditions

The day is a, for that area, particularly warm December day. The calm wind cannot account for the movement behavior of the object.

Appendix

Fig A.1. Distance between camera and nearest publicly available weather station at Quantico Marine Corps Air Facility.

* Geographic coordinates are given as a vector of latitudes and longitudes in format WGS 84 as used by Google maps.

† The detailed point in time of the capture was stated by the originator of the footage.

 
 
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